The Reds will continue to struggle scoring runs vs LHP until Ryan Ludwick is back which won't be for a long time. Ludwick had a .936 OPS vs. LHP last year help leading the Reds to good stats vs. lefties. The Reds will face off against Ross Detwiler today who in 4 career starts has yet to earn a win against the Reds despite a 3.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. I think that win comes today as he's backed by the best bullpen in baseball. This will be one of the few games the Reds won't have the best bullpen and Detwiler has also been excellent during his day starts posting a 2.35 ERA over his last 10 day starts. Washington also had the 6th best OPS during day games last year with a .756 and their hitters have a ton of success against Mike Leake, who is making the start.

Leake is not a special pitcher. Won't blow you away with his stuff and he posted a 5.12 ERA this spring while opponents had a .333 average against him. Leake gave up 11 ER in 2 starts vs. the Nationals last year and I expect those struggles to continue today as they have a .904 OPS and 5 HR in just 81 combined at bats vs. him. Leake had a 6.25 ERA during 8 starts last year and posted a 5.54 ERA at home. Overall he has a 5.13 ERA in 6 starts vs. the Nationals in his career and his main issue is home runs. He had a 16.7% HR/FB rate last year which was one of the worst last year. The Nationals are just 14th in FB%, but they get the most bang for their buck ranking 4th in HR/FB a year ago with a 13.1%. This is a bad match up for the Reds and all signs are pointing towards a Nationals victory and we have crazy good value with the Nationals as an under dog.

Where to find Freddy?